Market Outlook #62: Altcoin Special (22nd November 2019)
As promised in last week’s Market Outlook, I present today’s altcoin special:
In this Market Outlook, I will be taking a look at the abundance of longer-term opportunities that are currently available in the markets, covering Cardano, Verge, Komodo, Stratis, Enigma and Fetch.AI.
Let’s crack on:
Price: $0.036 (503 satoshis)
Market Cap: $946.126mn (130,355 BTC)
Thoughts: As mentioned in a post a couple of weeks ago, this is now perhaps the most opportune time to enter Cardano in its entire history, with price currently sitting near all-time lows. Following the collapse in summer, price has now found a stable range between 400 and 540 satoshis, which has been in play for 107 days. This is not only the longest consolidation in Cardano’s price-history, but it has also formed at a logical area for a cyclical bottom. However, given the current climate and the consistent rejection experienced every time altcoins have seen any relief, a more risk-averse and yet highly profitable play would be to await a sustained close above 540 satoshis and buy the retest of range resistance as new support. This is what I am waiting for, as there isn’t really the necessity to slowly accumulate a large-cap within a consolidation range, as there is for small projects…
Price: $0.0037 (52 satoshis)
Market Cap: $60.5mn (8,336 BTC)
Thoughts: Verge, similarly to Cardano, has traded down to prices that preceded the mega-bubble of 2017/18. It has since consolidated between 37 and 54 satoshis for over 100 days, with the past week experiencing over 14% of circulating supply traded within 24 hours. This is highly characteristic of textbook accumulation at a cyclical bottom, particularly for low-satoshi coins as significant amounts tend to be available for purchase without really moving price (see Siacoin for another example). I am buying Verge here with a soft stop-loss on a Daily close below range support.
Price: $0.66 (9,045 satoshis)
Market Cap: $76.924mn (10,590 BTC)
Thoughts: As many will know from my Top 5 Altcoins For 2020 post, I have been invested in Komodo from the 7k region, with it ultimately falling to 5,300 satoshis before a sharp reversal in October. This followed a short consolidation and clearly acted as a textbook spring for the price-action we have seen in November, with KMD topping out at 13,000 satoshis. It has since dropped off, as would be expected after several successive weeks of uptrend, and I am looking to add to my long-term position around 8,300 satoshis. I expect we will form a swing-low in the 8k area and begin a new leg up from there…
Price: $0.28 (3,880 satoshis)
Market Cap: $28.067mn (3,864 BTC)
Thoughts: Stratis is currently the feature of my Rich List series (the second instalment of which goes live tomorrow) and there is plenty to suggest that we should be buying it up within its current range. Following endless bleeding in summer, price formed a range between 3,200 and 5,000 satoshis, which has now remained firm for over 100 days. Again, much like many altcoins, these are prices unseen since early 2017, if not earlier. For those that are risk-averse, it would be wise to await a breakout above 5,000 satoshis and buy the retest if the breakout is met with significant volume.
Price: $0.38 (5,207 satoshis)
Market Cap: $28.32mn (3,897 BTC)
Thoughts: Enigma is making some moves out of its consolidation range between 2,900 and 4,300 satoshis, with its current price-action appearing like the Disbelief phase of the market cycle is imminent. Again, coincidentally it bottomed out at the same low that preceded the January 2018 bull cycle. Further, we can clearly see significant volume within the larger range below the 360-day moving average, indicating clear buyer interest. I am not entering a position yet, however, given the lack of clear structure of the range and its relative largeness; I’d rather wait for price to close above the 360-day moving average and buy a retest, with a view to hold at least to a retest of the spring 2019 high at 19,000 satoshis.
Price: $0.034 (471 satoshis)
Market Cap: $20.917mn (2,878 BTC)
Thoughts: Fetch.AI has not really experienced much of a bull cycle in its price-history, making it a prime candidate for price discovery moving forward. Since September, it has been range-bound between 395 and 613 satoshis (for ~12 weeks), with volume steadily rising within the range. Again, I am highly interested in buying but am awaiting a breakout for the signal; I do like the volume coming in here, however, and would not be averse to buying the range following some rich-list analysis. I expect that once FET breaks out, Disbelief will come hard and fast.
And that concludes this Market Outlook altcoin special.
I hope you’ve found some value in the read. Feel free to leave any comments below!